Here's a few notes I came across this week. Without a doubt equity markets were quite horrendous in 2022. Without bragging I can say I was right on inflation but I forgot to make the link that inflation means higher rates and that the risk-free rate would change DCF formula and expected cash flow.

However, let's not get caught up in regency bias. Yes 2022 was awful, but this doesn't mean 2023 will be as bad. As we come out of 2023 (Q3), all eyes will be on 2024 expectations.

There's a great talk for a forever bullish analyst Tom Lee from Fundstrat.
A Very Tom Lee Christmas | What Are Your Thoughts?
Of course, you need to keep your grain of salt since Tom has a default bullish stance. I personally also have a long-term bullish stance (which obviously paid off handsomely in the last 100 years).

Consecutive bad years are rare

Without some kind of very bad extrogeouns event (i.e. 9/11 or the oil crisis), 2 bad years in a row are rare. Turns out war doesn't seem to really affect this, and potentially war could be bullish.

The other interesting data point, other for 1973 (which I'm honestly not that familiar with), the 2001-2003 downturn had the biggest drawdown on the first year.

Like we talked in the past, time in market matters more than trying to time the market

Demographics matter:

Looking at the demographics and which cohort is of prime working age also matters.

As for this blog, I will try to post more regularly in 2023.Remember, no one knows what will happen in 2023. So, I'm not trying to predict anything here. My main goal is avoid getting caught in "regency bias" after a bad year.